Titled “Will Ubuntu revolutionise the Desktop? Or will it collapse under the weight of its contradictions?”, this blogger investigates the risks in Ubuntu's future
Read it here
I believe that if Ubuntu can stick to being a desktop for new users then they could really help to expand the total number of Linux users. Ubuntu could be a trailblazer for Linux, the way OS X could have been a trailblazer for FreeBSD (but as it turned out, Apple developed an Oedipus complex instead).
However, if Ubuntu get sidetracked into becoming another Redhat then Ubuntu will just be a cheap copy of Redhat competing for the same existing userbase.